prepare for brexodus

Like many other non-British EU citizens in the UK, I am sensing a strong vibe that foreigners from continental Europe will be made to feel unwelcome here (not by all, of course, but by the UKIP-inspired government and its supporters) in the near future. I have lived in the country for nearly 24 years now, but as things are going now, I may be out before the end of the 26th year.

The parliamentary debate over the Brexit Bill has shown that there is no efficient opposition that would moderate the government’s worst efforts leading us towards a traincrash Brexit and aligning the country with Trumpism. Even our local MP Andrew Smith, Labour, representing Oxford which voted 70% remain, voted with the government on the brexit bill, which was kind of the last nail in the coffin.

So far the government has resisted all calls, including the one from the majority in the House of Lords, to offer the 3 million non-British EU citizens living here any kind of reassurance that we will still be allowed to stay. My guess is that they will eventually come up with some conditional thing which will be tailored for people who have highly-paid jobs, maybe tacking on an exception for nurses once they realise that the health provision would collapse without them. But if resident foreigners ever lose their job, or happen to be freelancers or unpaid carers, it’s too bad and they’ll just have to go.

Specifically, there is the £35k rule currently in force for non-EU citizens, meaning that a work permit renewal after the first five years of residence requires you to earn more than £35k per year (see Stop35k).

Second, there have been cases of EU people applying for permanent residence permits (which we don't need yet, but they did so either as a precaution, or as a first step towards applying for British citizenship) and being rejected on the grounds that they should have had private health insurance rather than relying on NHS during their stay so far. Essentially this means that the home office doesn't recognise the NHS as a health insurance. This may sound crazy, but it happened to several people.

Not to mention that the residence permit application is a form with more than 80 pages to fill in (I am told it's five pages in Ireland, two in Germany), and additionally requiring you to document every time you left he country and returned (for me that would be over 100 trips to document) _and_ to send in your passport with the application, so being unable to travel while it is being processed. And if hundreds of thousands of people are having to go through this at the same time, the administration will by swamped with applications and who knows how long it could take. In the meantime, people have neither passport nor residence permit and may end up in the immigration detention centres.

I do appreciate that it is a huge privilege that we have been enjoying over the past 23 years thanks to the EU free movement policy, and that many people from other parts of the world have had it a lot harder. We regularly get examples in the news of how the Home Office treats people who don’t have that privilege (see the recent case of Irene Clennell, deported although she has been married to a British citizen for 27 years) and we’re not keen on getting a taste of that treatment when our privilege expires.

Moreover, apart from quite possibly not being allowed to stay, I am not really sure whether it will be safe to stay once the word spreads among racists and other fringe lunatics that Trump's attitudes to foreigners and other minorities (and women, obv.) are now ok, even in the UK.

There will be a Brexodus of people the UK can't afford to lose. According to a recent survey, a majority of doctors from the continent are already considering to leave, and BMW may decide to build the electric version of the Mini on the continent rather than in Oxford. As people leave, the international atmosphere of places like Oxford will disappear as well, so, well, sorry for the rant, back to packing ...





source

progress ends here

As a non-British EU citizen living in the UK and likely to be affected by Brexit if and when it happens, I've had to spend a few weeks reading up on the referendum and all the other crazy things happening in the world right now, so I was glad to get the opportunity to write up what I think I understood in a feature for Current Biology. (Always handy when obsessive reading magically turns into valuable research.)

The theme that links Brexit to the rise of Trump, Le Pen, and other populist candidates appears to be that developments of the last three decades like scientific and social progress, European unification, globalisation, etc. have left far too many people behind, who now constitute the angry voters that are ready to elect populists offering reactionary recipes and simple lies in response to the complex questions of today's world.

For a somewhat more detailed analysis, read:

Angry voters may turn back the clock

Current Biology Volume 26, Issue 15, pR689–R692, 8 August 2016

FREE access to full text and PDF download

Large pro-EU demonstrations, unheard of before the referendum, were held in London and other cities after the vote. The narrow margin of the result as well as the false promises that were withdrawn the day after the vote led to calls for a new referendum based on an actual plan of how an exit might work. (Photo: höRticuLtora/flickr.)

time to move on?

From my family history, I know that people in centuries past have found great opportunity in new homelands, but the crucial thing is to know when it is time to move on. My great-grandfather found business success in Königsberg, Eastern Prussia, and he left literally on the last ship that got through. My ancestors who emigrated to the Odessa region (today's Ukraine) on the shores of the Black Sea in 1806 (having left the relevant oldest son behind!), established a good life there for a couple of generations. After 1870 the new paradise lost its shine and many families moved on to the US. The descendants of those that stayed suffered forced relocation to Asia and prosecution under Stalin.

So, well, right now the candidates among whom the next UK prime minister will be chosen are debating whether or not Britain (in whatever diminished size it will exist then) will allow EU citizens to stay after it has signed out of the EU. Of course they won't deport 3 million people. But conceivably, we might need residence and work permits, and equally conceivably, the recently introduced threshold of £ 35,000 salary required for the permission to stay could also apply to EU citizens (the median salary is substantially below that figure, so only those who fall into the top 40% or so of earners can stay).

So, reluctantly, after 23 years of living here very happily, we're having to consider our options, to make sure that after 2018, we will still be able to live within the EU and without having to justify our existence. Like Scotland, we may have to leave to remain. Watch this space.

A few random thoughts on the issue (will occasionally add new ones at the top of the list):

• 16.8. According to the Sunday Times, article 50 may only be triggered in late 2017 - more time to get ready for a Brexodus. The Brexiteers are beginning to realise that they don't have the skilled personnel they would need in order to even begin thinking about such a gigantic project. Give them a bit more time and maybe they will realise that it wasn't such a bright idea in the first place.
• 8.8. My feature on Brexit and other populist menaces has appeared in Current Biology.
• 13.7. Theresa May has appointed Boris Johnson to the Foreign Office, showing exactly what she thinks of the 7 billion foreigners out there. I for one am taking this as a personal insult. Also, she keeps saying she wants to make the country work for British citizens. No word about EU citizens, but is the chain around her neck supposed to be a subtle hint?
• 11.7. As Theresa May is now certain to become prime minister, her speech held today promises a country that works for everyone. There are some quite progressive things in there, but unfortunately the term "everyone" doesn't appear to include the 3 million EU citizens who live here.
• 6.7. Nice to know that parliament supports our right to stay, but note that this is non-binding and a majority in parliament is against Brexit anyway.
• Considering how much time I've lost following the whole chaos, worrying about our future here and making contingency plans for a possible Brexodus, I would extrapolate that the worries of more than 2 million EU citizens currently working in the UK should add up to make a measurable dent in the country's economic performance.
• Theresa May becoming prime minister (and staying until 2020) is probably our worst scenario, as she has the intelligence and the cold heart to go through and do the worst. Boris Johnson's fantastic incompetence was (relatively) a glimmer of hope while he was still in the running.
• Cultural events I have attended since the referendum: A Galician folk session, a concert by the Liverpool band Dead Belgian, who play the songs of Jacques Brel, and an Irish session. How much of Oxford's international scene will survive once the drawbridges go up?
• Without free movement we probably wouldn't be here at all - so I imagine that the future hassle of work permits etc. may very well redirect part of the academic traffic to alternative destinations.
• While all major scientific organisations are trying to reassure people that international cooperation will go on as before, there are also some, like the Wellcome Trust, that could decide to move their funds and activities elsewhere.
• While Scotland and Northern Ireland understood their best interest, it was quite shocking that Wales, which benefits hugely from the EU, voted out. Some explanations here.

Look, there are 27 countries we can move to!

Image: Wikipedia
(spare a thought for the volunteers who are trying to keep the Wiki entries on the Brexit crisis up to date and readable)

bike to work

lots of European countries have programmes encouraging people to cycle to work, like for instance:

Austria: Radelt zur Arbeit

Denmark: Vi cykler til arbejde

Germany: Mit dem Rad zur Arbeit

Netherlands: Fietsen naar het Werk

Norway Sykle til jobben

To find similar campaigns near you (even a few small ones in the UK), check:

Bike 2 Work

Speaking of bicycles, our tandem, which served us faithfully from 2005 to 2014, has now left the premises, donated to a community bike workshop where it will be restored hopefully find a new lease of life.

little birds lost

Some large iconic bird species have recovered across Europe, but many less conspicuous ones are still declining. Even "common" species like the house sparrow have suffered dramatic declines, and ecologists have argued that their loss in abundance may make more of an impact than than the plight of the rarer birds that conservation efforts tend to focus on.

This is the topic of my latest feature in Current Biology which is out now:

Europe’s bird populations in decline
Current Biology Volume 25, Issue 12, pR483–R485, 15 June 2015
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2015.05.057
Open access

PS In lieu of a bird picture, enjoy this beautiful dinosaur on the cover of the issue:

losing our mobility

With the general resurgence of various nationalist and rightwing movements across Europe, which will probably have a significant impact on the European elections in May, there is the risk that we may lose mobility, which will also cause problems for science. My latest feature, written after the Swiss referendum on "mass immigration" takes a closer look at what's at stake.

New barriers to mobility in Europe?

Current Biology Volume 24, Issue 7, pR257–R259, 31 March 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2014.03.019

Free access to full text and PDF download

... and now also with buttons for easy tweeting and sharing !

food speculation update

Back in October 2011, I published a feature on food speculation (i.e. the gambling with vital commodities on international financial markets, which can leave real people unable to buy the food they need to survive), so I was pleased to hear yesterday that the EU is now taking action, as it sealed a deal on the reform of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), which sets new regulation for financial markets.

As always when the EU does a good thing, the UK government is fighting hard to stop it, but I understand it only succeeded in watering it down a bit, and campaigners from the World Development Movement are claiming the EU decision as a win for their fight against food speculation.

Here are the reactions from:

WDM: EU takes historic step to stop banks betting on hunger

Oxfam: EU deal on curbing food speculation comes none too soon

Friends of the Earth: New finance directive lays out improvements, but loopholes remain

See also this report from the Guardian: EU moves to curb food price bets by traders

Photo: WDM.

comeback for Europe's wildlife

We're in the middle of a global disaster for biodiversity, but here's a tiny speck of good news: a few dozen species of mammals and birds in Europe have recovered in recent decades after being severely threatened or even extinct in the wild. A report commissioned by Rewilding Europe analyses these cases. The hope is that understanding the underlying causes of these recoveries may help other species elsewhere.

Read all about this in my latest feature, illustrated with gorgeous animal portraits from the report:

Back from the brink

Current Biology, Volume 23, Issue 21, R939-R943, 4 November 2013 doi:10.1016/j.cub.2013.10.039

Free access to full text and PDF link

Eurasian spoonbill. Its recovery shows that conservation of wetland habitat and nesting sites does help species to recover after dramatic decline. (©Jari Peltomäki/Wild Wonders of Europe and Rewilding Europe.)

control freakery

Each time I’m taking the Eurostar to continental Europe I am left wondering, why is a single passport check ok to travel out, but two or three are done on the way back?

Coming back from Germany via Brussels last Sunday (on the Eurostar departing Brussels at 19:52) we had our passports checked three times (by Belgian and UK authorities in Brussels, and then by UK people again in St. Pancras). The ticket was also checked three times, by the machine at checkin, by the UK passport control in Brussels and by a train manager on the train.

I don’t really see the need for any passport controls within the EU. If I can fly from Madrid to Helsinki or Athens under the Schengen agreement without border control, what’s so special about the UK and Ireland that they can’t join? I’m really not buying the argument that these countries are so attractive they need extra protection.

Then, if you do need passport controls, why not do them once in the right place, and be done with it? If I’m a legal traveller on the first contol, I’ll surely still be legal on the third one. To me, the third passport control on the same leg of the journey really is where security measures end and harassment begins. It didn’t improve my mood that a steward, as I was stepping up to the counter with my son who has autism and needs constant supervision and assistance, shouted at us “one at a time”. If he had actually looked at us before, he could have figured out why we went ahead together.

My personal gripes apart, surely, it can’t be good for the UK economy if people who may be travelling to London on business get harassed this way?

New art work suspended from the roof of St. Pancras station.

51 years of Asterix & Obelix

Brussels is not only the capital of the European Union, but also the capital of the European comic strip, as I found out last week when trying to find a book shop that also sells normal books without drawings. So I felt obliged to bring back a copy of the Asterix & Obelix "Livre d'or" (Golden Book) published on the occasion of their 50th anniversary last year (which I missed completely, living on an island that's very well insulated from European culture).

Although I started my writing career with a lengthy piece about Asterix volumes 1-24 in my school magazine 30 years ago, I'm not going to review this one in detail. It's great fun, but it also struck me that dear old Uderzo is about as subtle as Obelix (which, I believe, is not a coincidence). All the graphic jokes which might have served a deeper meaning if Goscinny were alive, are just thrown around for the heck of it. But what can we do. It's the best we can get without René so we might as well enjoy, as my 12-year-old clearly does.

look, no crystals!

A new international research facility is due to be built at the DESY site, Hamburg, Germany: an X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL). The promise is that lasing will be possible at such short wavelength that structural biology can be done with single copies of biomolecules, membranes, cells ... So it should open access to high-resolution structures of biological entities that cannot be crystallised.

Read my story in today's issue of Current Biology, page R669:

New structural insights

A signature from Vladimir Putin has
finally secured the construction of
a revolutionary new European X-ray
research facility.

energy solution

According to plans drawn up by the DESERTEC consortium, most of Europe's energy needs could be supplied from large scale solar power plants in North Africa and the Middle East. The plan is based on concentrating solar-thermal power plants and a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) grid. It has recently come a step closer to realisation with the signing of an agreement between a dozen major companies, launching the Desertec Industrial Initiative.

Read my story in this week's issue of Current Biology:

New grids on the block
Michael Gross
Current Biology, Volume 19, Issue 15, R626-R627, 11 August 2009
doi:10.1016/j.cub.2009.07.043
Summary:
Meeting both carbon emission targets and energy demands may be feasible with DC cables connecting power-thirsty cities to sun-drenched deserts.
[PDF] (restricted access)

go forth and be creative

In case you didn't realise, 2009 is the European Year of Creativity and Innovation. So go forth and be creative, this is an order!

Well ok, even though I don't believe that creativity can be produced by bureaucratic devices (dear old Tony Blair would have set targets and benchmarks for this, as in: we are going to increase creativity by 35 % this year and cut boredom by 80% by the year 2020!), it may be worth keeping an eye on create 2009 in case they come up with any interesting events.

The official launch of the year of creativity is happening at Brussels on the 20th of this month.

So let's all have a very creative year ...

deutschsprachige Informationen

what's the worst that could happen?

I'm not sure whether the European Union needs a "president", but if it does, who would be the worst candidate one could imagine?

Which former leader of a EU country has harmed EU cohesion by keeping his country out of the Schengen treaty for free travel and out of the Euro zone, has promoted the accession of countries that make the EU wider but shallower, has steered his country so close to the US that it appears the English Channel is now wider than the North Atlantic?

Well, yes, you guessed it, the answer is Tony Blair. So when his name came up as a possible EU president some time last week, I had a very hard time trying not to bump my head against the nearest available wall. I've always considered myself a European citizen, but if he gets to run this place, I'll have to emigrate to Africa.

Luckily -- so we don't have to feel quite as powerless -- there is an online petition to stop Bliar from getting the EU job. In true European spirit you can read the petition in virtually every language spoken in the EU. I think I've never signed an online petition before, but I've signed this one as soon as I heard about it.

stop heating the garden

Patio heaters have spread epidemically around here over the last few years, as a vivid demonstration that awareness of environmental issues is still negligibly small. As people won't listen to reason, it's welcome news that the EU is preparing a ban on these horrid things. Even though, of course, this risks helping the anti-EU camp in this country, which is almost as strong as the anti-environment camp. A voluntary government ban ahead of EU legislation would have been better.

schengen land expands

"End of passport control as east meets west in EU without borders", according to today's Guardian.

The nine new members of the passport-less travel zone are: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Slovenia, and Malta.

It's not quite the end of pass port control in Europe, though. We can travel from Talinn to Porto without a passport, but still not from Dover to Calais.

There is still no word on whether the UK will ever join the Schengen land, or indeed the Euro, or any other significant EU activity. I think British governments (and their puppet masters in the tabloid press) are content with their role of operating the brakes on anything European.